The California Air Resources Board approved its final 2022 Scoping Plan update on December 15, 2022. The plan is the most ambitious in the country in terms of proposed greenhouse gas reduction efforts, chiefly aiming to reach carbon neutrality in the state by 2045 or earlier.
Morgan Lewis previously reported on the Draft Scoping Plan in June. This LawFlash details what has stayed the same through the approval process, what has changed, and why it matters.
The California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006—commonly known as Assembly Bill 32 (AB 32)—requires the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to develop, and to update every five years, a scoping plan that sets forth the approach California will take to reduce statewide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Initially, AB 32 established a goal of reducing GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. That target, however, proved to be a moving one. In the following years, as new studies detailed the impacts and potential impacts of climate change and provided additional support for the importance of taking immediate action, California governors and legislators have sought to strengthen the state’s emissions reduction goals.
Most recently, Governor Gavin Newsom issued an executive order calling for a transition away from fossil fuels and gasoline-powered vehicles. His office also drafted a slate of legislative measures aimed at tackling climate change concerns, the majority of which were subsequently signed into law in September 2022. They include regulations which codify the state’s preexisting carbon neutrality by a 2045 deadline, set interim targets for generating clean energy like wind and solar, and require the state to remove planet-warming carbon from the atmosphere via nature-based and technological methods of carbon capture.
CARB’s Final Scoping Plan focuses on turning California into a clean energy economy overall, with regulations that touch on numerous industries. CARB contends that the plan will cut greenhouse gas emissions by 48% below 1990 levels by 2030, an increase from the current 40% statutory mandate. By 2045, the plan would cut emissions by a dramatic 85% below 1990 levels.
The plan also purports to provide a 71% reduction in smog-forming air pollution, reduce fossil fuel consumption to less than one-tenth of what California uses presently, create 4 million new jobs in the energy sector, and save Californians $200 billion in health costs due to pollution in 2045.
The final plan incorporates changes requested by CARB and the Environmental Justice Advisory Committee after it conducted public hearings and met with various community and advocacy groups to discuss the May draft. It also integrates guidance from Governor Newsom as well as direction from the new state laws passed this September.
Fossil Fuels and Alternatives
In accordance with Governor Newsom’s goal to transition away from fossil fuel energy, CARB has adopted proposals which seek to reduce liquid petroleum fuel consumption by 94% and total fossil fuel demand by 86% by 2030.
Perhaps the most ambitious of these new measures includes a prohibition on building new fossil gas plants or expanding on current plants in the state. Instead, under the plan, energy development will be focused on renewable resources. For example, the plan contemplates adding 20 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity to the state by 2025. For the electricity generation sector at large, CARB’s plan includes lowering sector greenhouse gas emissions to 38 million metric tons (MMT) in 2030 and 30 MMT in 2035.
Carbon Capture
After meeting with various environmental groups and energy lobbyists, CARB called for installing point source capture technology on petroleum refineries, cement production facilities, and electricity-generating gas plants where there is currently no feasible alternative to combustion energy. One of the methods CARB suggests is CO2 injection, a process wherein carbon dioxide from an industrial process is captured, stabilized, and injected into geological formations, such as depleted gas reservoirs and saline formations.
These technological capture methods are intended to be implemented in addition to increased focus on carbon capture via natural means, such as the preservation of natural lands by planting trees and restoring wetlands.
Transportation
The plan incorporates newly passed measures that ban the sale of gasoline-only cars by 2035. The plan calls for at least 35% of new vehicles sold to be zero emission by 2026, a threshold which gradually increases each year to meet the 100% goal.
Other transportation modes will also be targeted. For example, under the plan, aviation will need to meet 20% of its fuel demand with electricity or hydrogen while mass transit transportation like buses and light rail will need to transition to zero-emissions systems. The plan also recommends making 100% of freight and passenger locomotive sales zero-emission vehicles by 2030.
Climate Friendly Buildings
In line with limiting fossil fuel consumption, the plan aims to reduce the impacts from residential and commercial buildings. For new residential builds, the plan requires that all appliances run on electricity rather than gas by 2026. For existing homes, 80% of new appliance sales must be electric by 2030, and 100% by 2045. This measure will help CARB meet its goal of 3 million climate-friendly homes by 2030. If successful, the agency expects to create 7 million all-electric homes by 2035.
For new commercial buildings, all appliances must be electric by 2029. Existing commercial buildings will follow suit of residential buildings: 80% of appliance sales must be electric by 2030, with the goal of 100% by 2045.
Climate Vulnerability Metric
CARB introduced a new tool, the Climate Vulnerability Metric, to identify communities especially vulnerable to harm from a changing climate and worsening air quality, seeking to ensure that those communities’ public health and environmental concerns are front-and-center as the state moves ahead.
CARB emphasized in its press release that while the plan is a major step forward in the fight against climate change, “it will only be the first step.” Collaboration across state agencies and local governments will prove imperative in reaching California’s goals. The plan will touch on “every sector of the economy,” with the energy sector likely to bear most of the burden.
For additional information, please visit CARB’s website.
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Law clerk AG Nwosu contributed to this LawFlash.